矿井水监测预警系统研究进展及发展方向

Research on monitoring and early warning systems for mine water: Progress and prospects

  • 摘要:
    背景 矿井水灾是采动影响或触发的地质体剧烈变化的偶发事件,由于地质体的复杂性、不均一性以及动态性,加之采动影响的随机性、瞬时性,导致矿井水灾事件具有不确定性、不稳定性、偶发性和瞬变性,矿井水监测预警作为灾害超前防控前置条件,其研究及系统建设具有重要理论意义和实用价值。
    进展及展望 (1)伴随煤炭开发利用,在与矿井水灾斗争的历程中,监测预警从零起步,历经人为经验判识、物理机制导引的信息采集辨识、物理−数据双驱动的智能监测预警,到目前基本完成了系统化改造、工业化示范、规模化应用,在基础研究、技术研发与系统建设等方面取得了显著进展,部分典型场景实现了超前预警,树立了矿井水灾可防可控可预警的信念。(2)但灾变物理机制不清致使指标体系不完善、信息获取不全面、评估预测不准确,导致预警漏报、误报、虚报等频发,大部分场景还未达到超前精准预警的总体目标,仍面临严峻挑战。(3)梳理了矿井水监测预警系统研究进展,提出了系统架构,针对系统的指标体系、信息感知(监测)、评估预测、辨识预警4个关键技术进行理论探讨,总结其内涵及关联关系,凝练总结其面临挑战,指明了以物理机制为基础向“物理−数据”双驱动转变的监测预警总体发展方向。(4)提出了构建全面指标体系、优化感知系统布置、多灾害全要素联合监测、建立地质水文模型 + 深度学习预测模型、预警规则和因子阈值设置、实时及超前预警、图像监测及大数据处理等7个具体发展方向,为该领域理论研究、技术研发及系统建设奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Water disasters in mines are occasional accidents occurring due to the influence or triggered by mining-induced intense changes in geological bodies. The complexity, heterogeneity, and dynamics of geological bodies, coupled with the random and instantaneous nature of mining influence, lead to the uncertainty, instability, occasionality, and transience of water disasters in mines. Given that mine water monitoring and early warning serve as a prerequisite for advanced disaster prevention and control, their research and system construction hold great theoretical significance and practical value.
    Progress and Prospects  Fighting against water disasters in mines is conducted throughout the development and utilization of coals. Starting from scratch, the monitoring and early warning of these disasters have undergone human experience-based identification, physical mechanism-guided information acquisition and identification, and intelligent monitoring and early warning driven by physics and data, with systematic transformation, industrial demonstration, and large-scale applications having been achieved presently. Significant advances have been made in relevant basic research, technological research and development, and system construction, enabling advanced early warning in some typical scenarios. These achievements underscore the belief that the prevention, control, and early warning of water disasters in mines can be achieved. However, the unclear physical mechanisms underlying the disasters lead to incomplete index systems, insufficient information acquisition, and inaccurate assessment and prediction. These issues tend to result in frequent occurrences of missed, false, and inaccurate early warnings. Consequently, the overall goal of advanced and precise early warnings has not been fulfilled for a vast majority of scenarios, facing serious challenges. Based on the review of the advances in research, this study proposed a system architecture for the monitoring and early warning of mine water, followed by theoretical discussions about four key technologies: the index system, information perception (monitoring), evaluation and prediction, and identification and early warning. Accordingly, this study summarized the connotations and interrelationships of these technologies, as well as relevant challenges. Furthermore, it pointed out that the monitoring and early warning should shift from methodologies based on physical mechanisms to the physics-data dual-driving mechanism. This overall development direction includes seven specific directions: constructing a comprehensive index system, optimizing the layout of the perception system, total-factor joint monitoring of multiple disasters, establishing geological-hydrological models + deep learning-based prediction models, setting early warning rules and factor thresholds, real-time and advance warning, and image monitoring and big data processing. These directions will lay the foundation for theoretical research, technological research and development, and system construction in this field.

     

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