碳封存技术面临的挑战与亟待突破的关键科学问题

Carbon sequestration technology: Challenges and urgent critical scientific issues

  • 摘要:
    目的 碳封存技术是实现碳中和目标的核心路径,但其大规模应用受限于多重技术和科学瓶颈。
    方法 基于对碳封存项目的成败分析,总结了碳封存面临的四大挑战:CO2封存容量评估的高度不确定性、低渗不连续储层可注性差、长期力学稳定性认识不足以及泄漏风险评估困难。
    结果 针对这些挑战,明确指出当前碳封存技术所面临的共性问题,并归纳出亟需突破的三大关键科学问题:一是构建普适性碳储工程地质学理论,完善基于“三性”(可注性、密封性、稳定性)的有效封存容量评估体系;二是研究碳储工程扰动规律,建立多场多相跨尺度本构关系,提升预测精度;三是完善碳封存项目的风险评价、监测与处置理论,整合多物理场耦合模拟与低成本高灵敏度监测技术,构建闭环风险管理体系。
    结论 未来,通过理论创新、技术开发以及跨学科合作,致力于解决上述关键科学问题,从而优化封存容量的评估、提升盆地储层的CO2封存效率、保障封存场地的长期稳定性并降低泄漏风险,为碳封存技术的规模化应用和全球碳中和目标的实现提供坚实支撑。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  Carbon sequestration technology represents a core approach to achieving carbon neutrality. However, its large-scale application remains constrained by multiple technical and scientific challenges.
    Methods  Based on an analysis of existing carbon sequestration projects, this study identified four major challenges in carbon sequestration: (1) high uncertainty in the assessment of CO2 sequestration capacity; (2) low injectivity of low-permeability discontinuous reservoirs; (3) a limited understanding of long-term mechanical stability; and (4) significant difficulty in assessing the risks of CO2 leakage.
    Results  To address these challenges, this study proposes the common issues currently faced by carbon sequestration technology, and, accordingly, determines three urgent critical scientific issues. First, there is an urgent need to develop universal geological theories applicable to carbon sequestration projects and, accordingly, to improve systems for evaluating effective sequestration capacity based on reservoir injectivity, tightness, and stability. Second, disturbance patterns in carbon sequestration projects should be investigated, and multi-field, multi-phase, and multi-scale constitutive relationships should be established, with the purpose of enhancing prediction accuracy. Third, it is necessary to advance the risk assessment, monitoring, and remediation theories applicable to carbon sequestration projects, as well as to integrate multi-physical-field coupling simulation with low-cost, high-sensitivity monitoring technologies. These efforts are essential for establishing closed-loop risk management systems.
    Conclusions  In the future, it is advisable to address these three critical scientific issues through theoretical innovation, technological development, and interdisciplinary collaboration. These efforts will help optimize the evaluation of CO2 sequestration capacity, improve CO2 sequestration efficiency in reservoirs within basins, ensure the long-term stability of sequestration sites, and mitigate leakage risks. These advances will provide robust support for the large-scale applications of carbon sequestration and the achievement of global carbon neutrality.

     

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