CO2地质封存模型研究进展及展望

Research advances and prospects of geologic CO2 sequestration models

  • 摘要:
    背景 应对全球气候变化、实现碳中和目标的紧迫需求,正推动CO2地质封存技术向规模化、安全化与智能化方向发展。封存过程涉及多物理场耦合,其工程可行性与长期安全性高度依赖数值模型对地下复杂过程的精确刻画。因此,构建覆盖“注入–运移–封存–监测”全流程、适应多类封存地质体的模型体系,成为支撑该技术走向工程应用的关键基础。
    进展 系统阐述了CO2地质封存中的6类核心模型,包括多相流模型、垂直集成模型、反应运输模型、深度学习模型、羽流模型及地质力学模型,并基于国际典型封存项目的实践验证,构建了以“储层特征–算法选取–监测需求”协同为核心的普适性建模方法体系。研究表明,在注入阶段,采用傅里叶算法耦合多相流模型可有效优化关键参数;在运移阶段,借助有限元–有限体积耦合的羽流模型能精准追踪CO2空间展布;在监测阶段,通过地质力学模型可系统评估盖层完整性与断层活化风险,从而实现全链条动态安全表征。
    展望 面向复杂地质条件与长效安全封存需求,未来应发展以大数据和人工智能驱动为核心的智慧化建模。通过深度融合地质机理与多源监测数据,构建具备自主学习、实时同化与动态优化能力的新一代模型,以显著提升预测精度与场景适应性。该模型体系将进一步拓展至“捕集–运输–封存–利用–排放”全闭环系统,支撑碳“封存–利用”循环一体化方案的构建与智能调控,推动CO2封存从单环节模拟向全链条协同管理跨越。研究成果为CO2地质封存模型的跨场景应用提供了系统方法,并为模型体系向长效化、智能化演进指明了实现路径。

     

    Abstract:
    Background  The urgent need to respond to global climate change and to achieve carbon neutrality is driving geologic CO2 sequestration technology to be increasingly large-scale, safe, and intelligent. Since the CO2 sequestration process involves multi-physical field coupling, the engineering feasibility and long-term safety of CO2 sequestration heavily rely on the capacity of numerical models to perform accurate characterization of complex subsurface processes. Therefore, establishing a model system, covering the entire process consisting of injection, migration, sequestration, and monitoring, that is suitable for various geobodies for CO2 sequestration has emerged as a foundation for the engineering application of geologic CO2 sequestration technology.
    Advances  This study systematically expatiates on six types of core models for geologic CO2 sequestration: multiphase flow, vertical integration, reactive transport, deep learning, CO2 plume, and geomechanical models. Based on the practical validation through representative CO2 sequestration projects across the world, this study develops a universal modeling methodology centered on the synergy between reservoir characteristics, algorithm selection, and monitoring requirements. Studies have revealed that in the injection phase, key parameters can be effectively optimized using Fourier algorithms coupled with the multiphase flow model; in the migration phase, the spatial distribution of CO2 can be accurately traced using the plume model coupled with finite element and finite volume methods; in the monitoring phase, cap rock integrity and the fault reactivation risk can be systematically assessed using the geomechanical model, thereby enabling the full-chain dynamic safety characterization.
    Prospects  Given complex geological conditions and the demand for long-term safe sequestration, future efforts should focus on intelligent modeling driven by both big data and artificial intelligence. It is advisable to establish a new generation of models that are capable of autonomous learning, real-time data assimilation, and dynamic optimization by deeply integrating geological mechanisms and multi-source monitoring data. The purpose is to significantly enhance prediction accuracy and scenario adaptability. This model system will further extend to a fully closed-loop system covering capture, transport, sequestration, utilization, and emission, thereby supporting the establishment and intelligent adjustment of the integrated scheme of the CO2 sequestration-utilization cycle. Furthermore, this system will promote the transition of CO2 sequestration from single-link simulation to whole-chain collaborative management. Overall, the results of this study provide a systematic methodology for the cross-scenario application of geologic CO2 sequestration models and offer a pathway for the evolution of the model system toward prolonged effects and intelligence.

     

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