Objective The Shendong coal base, located within the arid and semi-arid regions in western China, is identified as the region with the most pronounced contradiction between coal resource development and ecological conservation in the country. Analyzing the spatiotemporal variations in the ecosystem and their influencing factors at the base scale provides a necessary foundation for green mine construction while also offering critical support for regional sustainable development.

Methods In this study, the vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) was selected as an indicator for the ecological evaluation of mining areas. By integrating data on terrain, weather and climate, socio-economy, and human activities, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and stability of vegetation NPP in the Shendong coal base using Theil-Sen median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and coefficient of variation (CV). Additionally, factors influencing vegetation NPP were examined by introducing partial derivative residual analysis, an optimal parameters-based geographic detector (OPGD), and structural equation modeling (SEM).

Results and Conclusions From 2000 to 2020, the vegetation NPP in the Shendong coal base exhibited an upward trend with fluctuations, with mean and total interannual growth rate determined at 6.39 gC/(m²·a) and 0.15 TgC/a, respectively. In this period, the vegetation NPP of most areas in the base showed relatively low stability yet a sustained increase. The partial derivative residual analysis results indicate that climatic factors contributed more significantly to changes in vegetation NPP than human activities. Among climatic factors, precipitation exhibited a greater contribution than solar radiation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. In addition, dominant factor analysis revealed that the proportions of areas where NPP increases were driven by climate and human activities accounted for 77.12% and 22.24%, respectively. The OPEG-derived results show that climatic factors exerted the highest impacts on changes in vegetation NPP and that the terrain factors produced greater influence than human activity factors. Furthermore, interactions among different factors enhanced the explanatory power of individual factors. The SEM results reveal that climatic factors produced the highest total and direct impacts on vegetation NPP, whereas human activity factors produced the lowest impacts. In contrast, the terrain factors primarily influenced vegetation NPP through indirect effects on climatic and human activity factors. Results from various analytical methods consistently demonstrate that compared to the terrain and human activity factors, climatic factors, especially precipitation, acted as the dominant factors influencing changes in vegetation NPP in the Shendong coal base. The results of this study elucidate the influence mechanisms of vegetation growth in the ecosystems in mining areas under high-intensity mining disturbance, providing a scientific basis for formulating differential strategies for ecological restoration and conducting green mine construction in arid and semi-arid coal mining areas.