全球CO2地质封存案例库选址决策平台研究及应用

Research and application of a decision support platform for geologic CO2 storage siting based on a global case database

  • 摘要:
    目的 在“双碳”战略背景下,推进CO2地质封存规模化部署亟需解决“封哪里”的核心问题。建立全球CO2地质封存案例库与决策平台,可为选址工作提供关键数据支撑与历史经验借鉴,有效降低封存风险与成本,加速产业布局,并为相关政策制定与技术研发提供科学依据。
    方法 提出并建立了一个综合的CO2地质封存选址评估系统。该系统集成三项核心技术:基于改进余弦相似度的案例类比算法、依托模糊综合评价的适宜度评估模型,以及结合三维地质模型的有利地质体优选方法。通过构建定量化案例库并关联多源参数,建立了统一的空间数据库模型,并基于ArcGIS平台开发了集“案例比选−适宜度评价−地质体优选”于一体的系列功能模块,形成了系统的选址技术支撑体系。
    结果和结论 基于该框架,研发了一套融合改进余弦相似度算法、随机森林适宜度评估模型及三维地质建模的封存靶区定量优选的决策平台。该平台通过算法驱动对全数据体进行系统扫描,提升了从定性经验到定量分析的案例匹配精度与地质体评价客观性,有效克服了传统人工方法的主观偏差与视野局限。平台实现了对背斜、断块等各类圈闭的统一量化评价与分级排序,大幅提高了封存体识别效率与结果可比性。以苏北盆地高邮凹陷为例的实践应用表明,该平台能为CO2封存选址提供精准、高效且可直接支撑决策的数字化方案,有力增强了规模化封存部署的科学性与前瞻性。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  Under the strategic background of reaching the goals of peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality, there is an urgent need to address the core issue of geologic CO2 storage (GCS) siting in the advancement of large-scale GCS deployment. Establishing a decision support platform based on a global GCS case database can provide key data and historical experience references for GCS siting, reduce storage risks and costs, and accelerate industrial layout. Furthermore, the platform can offer a scientific basis for formulating related policies and conducting technological R&D.
    Methods  This study proposed and developed a comprehensive evaluation system for GCS siting. This system integrates three core techniques: a case analogy algorithm based on improved cosine similarity, a suitability assessment model relying on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and a method for selecting favorable geobodies by combining 3D geological models. By constructing a quantitative case database and linking multi-source parameters, this study established a unified spatial database model. Using the ArcGIS platform, it developed a range of functional modules integrating the comparison and selection of similar cases, the suitability assessment of storage sites, and the selection of favorable geobodies. Consequently, a systematic technical support system for GCS siting was formed.
    Results and Conclusions Using the resulting framework, this study developed a decision support platform for quantitative selection of optimal GCS targets, which integrated an improved cosine similarity algorithm, a suitability assessment model based on a random forest algorithm, and 3D geological modeling. Through algorithm-driven systematic scanning of the entire data volume, this platform significantly enhances the case matching accuracy from qualitative to quantitative and improves the objectivity of geobody evaluation, effectively reducing the subjective bias and limited vision inherent in traditional manual methods. This platform enables a unified quantitative evaluation and hierarchical ranking of various trap types such as anticlines and fault blocks, substantially improving both the efficiency of GCS target identification and the comparability of results. The practical application in the Gaoyou Sag within the Subei Basin demonstrates that this platform can provide precise, efficient digital solutions that provide direct support for GCS siting, thereby significantly enhancing the scientific rigor and prospective planning for large-scale CO2 storage deployment.

     

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