Objective and Methods  This study aims to promote the sustainable development of the underground coal gasification (UCG) industry and to extend the industrial chain of syngas development and utilization. To this end, this study analyzed the UCG-electricity generation (UCG-EG) potential of Guizhou Province based on the evaluation results of resources allowing UCG and the current status of energy and electric power structures of this province. A 3D analytical principle model for UCG-EG industry scenarios in Guizhou was constructed through scenario modelling. Using this model, the prospects of the UCG industry under low, medium, high, and ultra-high scenarios were quantitatively depicted. Furthermore, this study proposed the development paths and potential of the UCG-EG industry driven by UCG and gas-fired power generation technologies.

Results  In Guizhou Province, the total resources of coals that can be gasified reach up to 41.388 2 billion t, with a syngas potential of 82.776 4 trillion m3. Under the scenario of 50% EG efficiency, the EG potential amounts to 80.475 2 trillion kWh. In terms of spatial distribution, the three major coalfields in western Guizhou represent the core carriers of UCG across the province. Among these, the Liupanshui Coalfield can be preferentially developed into demonstration base, the Zhina Coalfield is suitable for the building of an integrated industrial chain comprising syngas production, electricity generation, and electricity transmission, while the Qianbei Coalfield enables localized syngas utilization. Based on the calculated UCG syngas production, the annual UCG syngas production in Guizhou Province ranges from a minimum of 5.475 billion m³ to a maximum of 182.5 billion m³ under the dual constraints of single-gasifier production capacity (50 000 m³/d, 150 000 m³/d, and 250 000 m³/d) and the gasifier quantities in various scenarios (300, 600, and 1 200). Scenario analysis indicates that by the stage of stable industrial scale, when 2 000 UCG gasifiers operate simultaneously, the UCG-EG capacity will be equivalent to the capacity of fossil-fired power generation. As a result, a new tripartite pattern consisting of fossil-fired power generation, UCG-EG, and hydropower + renewable power generation.

Conclusions Three core analytical models are innovatively developed, particularly including the multi-dimensional coordinated development scenario model integrating policies, technology, and market. Through quantitative analysis using the models, this study clarifies the progressive four-stage development path of the UCG-EG industry in Guizhou. The results can provide local governments with a theoretical basis and data for the energy industry, facilitate the formation of a diversified energy structure of Guizhou and even the whole country, and help achieve the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.