Analysis of the development potential of Guizhou's gas-electric industry under the background of underground coal gasification technology

Purpose and Methods  To continuously promote the development of the underground coal gasification industry and extend the industrial chain of syngas development and utilization, this study takes Guizhou Province as an example. Based on the results of UCG resource evaluation and the current status of energy and power structures in Guizhou, an analysis of gas-electricity potential was conducted. Using scenario modeling, a three-dimensional analytical principle model for the UCG-Electricity industry scenarios in Guizhou was constructed. Through this model, the development prospects of the UCG industry under four different scenarios (low, medium, high, and ultra-high) were quantitatively depicted. Furthermore, the potential development paths and potential of the UCG-EG industry under the dual-drive model of underground coal gasification and gas-fired power generation technological progress were proposed.

Results  The total gasifiable coal resources in Guizhou Province reach 41.3882 billion tons, with a UCG syngas potential of 82.7764 trillion cubic meters. Under the scenario of 50% power generation efficiency, the power generation potential amounts to 80.4752 trillion kilowatt-hours. In terms of spatial distribution, the three major coalfields in western Guizhou constitute the core carriers of UCG in the province: the Liupanshui Coalfield can serve as a priority development and demonstration base, the Zhina Coalfield is suitable for building an integrated industrial chain of "gas production-power generation-power transmission", and the northern Guizhou Coalfield enables the local utilization of syngas. Based on the calculation of UCG gas production in Guizhou, constrained by the dual factors of single-reactor gas production capacity (50,000 m³/d, 150,000 m³/d, and 250,000 m³/d) and the number of reactors in scenarios (300, 600, and 1,200 reactors), the annual UCG gas production ranges from a minimum of 5.475 billion cubic meters to a maximum of 182.5 billion cubic meters. Scenario analysis indicates that by the stable stage of industrial scale, when 2,000 UCG reactors are in simultaneous operation, the gas-fired power generation capacity will be equivalent to that of thermal power, forming a new pattern of "three pillars" consisting of thermal power, gas-fired power, and hydropower + new energy power generation.

Conclusions This study innovatively constructs three core analytical models, particularly the "multi-dimensional coordinated development scenario model integrating policy, technology, and market". Through quantitative analysis via the model, the "four-stage progressive" development path of the UCG power generation industry in Guizhou is clarified. This research can provide theoretical and data support for local governments in energy industry layout, and holds significant practical significance for promoting the formation of a diversified energy structure in Guizhou and even the whole country, as well as facilitating the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals.