Multilevel loess landslide risk evaluation based on Monte-Carlo method

As for the loess landslide which has multilevel slide faces, its stability cannot be evaluated with the simple single slide face. Based on the theory of Monte-Carlo method and with the combination of simplified Bishop method, the paper established the analytical status function for the stability and reliability of the landslide under the condition of the limit equilibrium, put forward the calculation method for the stability of the loess landslide based on the probability, obtained that the destroy probability of all the slide faces are related to each other during the destroy of the multilevel loess landslide after calculation of the relevant safety margin coefficients during the sliding of the landslide of each level, meanwhile, established the evaluation index for the loess landslide risks based on the probability theory. Taking the landslide in Yangzhuang village as the example, the stability coefficient and reliability of the Category-III landslide were calculated respectively, so as to reflect the dangerous degree of the Category-III landslide in Yangzhuang village quantitatively. Thus, it provides the reference for the project management, forecasting, early warning and the risk evaluation of the landslide.